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【中文版】如何预测AI泡沫的顶点:一个基于信号的分析框架

英文原文链接 : https://geekwagner.blogspot.com/2026/08/how-to-predict-ai-bubble-peak-signal.html 免责声明 : 本文仅反映作者个人观点与分析,仅供一般信息和教育用途,不构成财务、投资、法律或税务建议,也不构成购买、出售或持有任何证券、加密货币或其他资产的建议或招揽。文中所表达的观点不代表任何雇主、客户或关联机构的立场。所有数据、数字及解读均基于公开可获得的资料,作者相信其在撰写时准确无误,但不作任何保证,且可能存在不完整、过时或需修订之处。市场本质上是不可预测的,本文所讨论的任何信号、仪表或阈值均不保证任何未来结果。读者应自行进行独立研究,并在做出任何投资决策前咨询持牌财务顾问。作者对因依赖本文内容而造成的任何损失或损害不承担任何责任。 Market Signals 仪表盘: https://aistorm.cc/market-signals/ 如何预测AI泡沫的顶点:一个基于信号的分析框架 每一次投机性繁荣的结局,事后看来都惊人地相似——显而易见、不可避免,却依然让几乎所有在破裂时还持有仓位的人措手不及。2020年代中期的这轮AI基建热潮,很可能也不会例外。真正有意义的问题不是"这一切是否会结束",而是"在结束之前,数据中会出现哪些迹象"。以下是一个实用的分析框架——四类持续追踪的信号——用于在头条新闻之前发现顶点。这些信号背后的数据都实时呈现在我们的 Market Signals 仪表盘( https://aistorm.cc/market-signals/ )上,并随新数据发布持续更新。 美联储流动性是潮水;在关注船只之前先看潮水 市场中没有任何事情能脱离流动性而发生。目前,美联储银行准备金约为 2.99万亿美元——明显高于我们视为"泡沫仍在持续"的2.8万亿美元这条线。只要准备金保持在这一水平之上,系统中就仍有足够的富余流动性来支撑风险资产,其中也包括AI股票。真正需要关注的信号并非缓慢的流动性下降,而是准备金在非真正银行体系危机的情况下,快速跌破约2.5万亿美元这一关口。这将是流动性被抽离速度快到足以广泛威胁估值的临界点,而AI相关个股——作为廉价、充裕资本的最大受益者之一——将首当其冲面临重新定价。 与之配套的指...

How to Predict the AI Bubble Peak: A Signal-Based Framework

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Disclaimer : This article reflects the author's personal opinions and analysis only. It is provided for general informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security, cryptocurrency, or other asset. The views expressed are not those of any employer, client, or affiliated organisation. All data, figures, and interpretations are based on publicly available sources believed to be accurate at the time of writing but are not guaranteed and may be incomplete, outdated, or subject to revision. Markets are inherently unpredictable, and no signal, gauge, or threshold discussed here guarantees any future outcome. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision. The author accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content. Market Signals Dashboard:  http...

Is AI really causing mass layoffs in tech sector? - Data tells everything

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Since late 2022, the technology sector has seen a relentless wave of workforce reductions. Concurrent with this contraction is the explosive rise of generative AI, leading to a dominant public narrative: Artificial Intelligence is already replacing human workers at scale. However, a deeper look into industry metrics reveals a more complex reality. While capital is undeniably shifting toward AI development, the direct causal link between AI investment and mass layoffs is weaker than headlines suggest. Instead, the tech industry is experiencing a phenomenon known as "AI washing" -where standard corporate restructuring is rebranded as strategic AI pivoting to appease investors. Layoff data from aistorm.cc by sector What the Data Actually Says Recent aggregated data from AI Storm  ( correlation data ) tracking industry correlations from 2020 onward provides a clear quantitative lens on this issue. By measuring Pearson's r (where +1 is a perfect positive correlation and 0 is...

Disable MSI monitor driver drive for Macos/Linux

 Shell script #!/bin/bash DEV_DESP="MS MSI Gaming Controller" UHUB_CMD="/opt/homebrew/bin/uhubctl -s \"$DEV_DESP\"" DEV_USB_INFO=`eval "$UHUB_CMD"` LOCATION=`echo $DEV_USB_INFO | sed 's/^.*\([0-9]-[0-9]\).*$/\1/'` PORT=`echo $DEV_USB_INFO | sed 's/^.*\] Port \([0-9]\).*$/\1/' ` echo Target Device: $DEV_DESP if [ -z "$LOCATION"   ] || [ -z "$PORT" ]; then   echo "Device cannot be found."   exit 0 fi echo Location: $LOCATION echo Port: $PORT UHUB_ACT_CMD="/opt/homebrew/bin/uhubctl -a off -l $LOCATION -p $PORT" echo Running cmd: $UHUB_ACT_CMD eval $UHUB_ACT_CMD

Turn on/off a specific usb port on Macos/Linux by command

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Tool needed: uhubctl Github: https://github.com/mvp/uhubctl For Linux or Macos, sometimes we need to turn off  a usb device from command line. This is very useful when there is a faulty device but hard to remove or when testing certain usb devices. For linux, please refer to the Github readme for installation. For Macos, we can install uhubctl using brew: brew tap mvp/uhubctl https://github.com/mvp/uhubctl brew install uhubctl     To list all the current usb devices, use the command: uhubctl To turn of a certain device, use the following command: uhubctl -l {location} -p {port} -a off The {location} means the hub number (e.g. 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, etc.). The {port} means the port number. In the example above, the {location} is 1-1 and the {port} is 3.

How to check whether Brew services are successfully started.

 'brew services start <service name>' sometimes will claim it 'successfully' started a service even though it didn't. And it won't give you any log. However, we can use the command 'brew services list' to find the coresponding plist file and manually execute the service start command in that file. By doing this, the error can be print out.  

Why does wp-admin login page failed after changing to https because of looping redirection and how to solve it?

After changing my Wordpress from http to https, the wp-admin login page failed because of too many redirections. I finally solved this problem by adding the following line to wp-config.php: $_SERVER['HTTPS'] = 'on';